Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
